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Swine Flu Predictions 1.8 Million Hospitalized

Posted by Jane Akre
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 10:40 AM EST
Category: Protecting Your Family
Tags: Immunizations, Vaccines, H1N1, Swine Flu, Influenza, CDC

Flu shots are available in October for the swine flu, but consumers should understand the potential downsides.

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IMAGE SOURCE: ©iStockphoto/ flu shot/ author: pressdigital 

 

Mid-October

The U.S. is preparing to launch a swine flu inoculation campaign so the numbers released today seem dire enough to have everyone running for a flu shot.

1.8 million Americans could be hospitalized with about half dying under a worst-case scenario, reports the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).

The swine flu vaccine is under development by five drug makers and may be available by October.

Generally seasonal flu can prove the most dangerous to those over the age of 65, but in this case, the H1N1 virus has affected a large number of children and young adults who have not survived other flu seasons and therefore do not have a reserve of immunity built up in their bodies.

Expect the peak season to hit about October 15th- which happens to be the same date a vaccine is expected to be delivered.

While 120 million doses were to be ready October 15th, production delays have federal health officials now saying expect only 45 million to be ready by then, reports ABC News.

ABC reports several reputable health experts, not part of the federal government, believe the estimates on the numbers, though scary, may be quite accurate.

However, the 2009-H1N1 season is unlikely to resemble the deadly flu pandemic of 1918-19, the report concludes.

Besides vaccines, the report says citizens should be reminded they can have a “potentially big impact on the flu season’s severity,” by frequent hand-washing and staying home from school or work when they’re sick with flu symptoms- fever, headache and muscle aches.

Still Questions

Multi-dose vials of the vaccine will contain thimerosal, the mercury-based preservative, which may keep some away, especially pregnant women.

“We don't have adequate safety studies on this vaccine before we are moving forward to market," said Lyn Redwood, president and co-founder of the group SafeMinds to ABC News.

"I'm really not convinced that we know for sure that the risk of the disease outweighs the risk of the vaccine, especially since this is a brand new additive that we have never used before in combination with thimerosal."

Sanofi-Aventis, one drug maker, says it plans to market a thimerosal-free version of the vaccine.

Another question still unresolved is whether drug makers will prepare a swine flu vaccine with an adjuvant. 

Adjuvants can include forms of aluminum are used with other vaccines to make them more effective with less vaccine. Adjuvants are used in hepatitis A and B, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and the Hib vaccine.

Drug Maker Immunity

Prior to 1988, any injuries by childhood vaccines allowed you to file a lawsuit against the manufacturer to receive compensation. Thought to be a disincentive to developing vaccines, the government created the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (NVICP), also known as "vaccine court," which relieves drug makers of any liability.

And while swine flu vaccines are being tested, drug makers admit with this rush order, there are still questions.  

GlaxoSmithKline, one maker of vaccines, warns in a July press release that the "total population studies in clinical trials will be limited due to the needs to provide the vaccine to governments as quickly as possible. Additional studies will therefore be required and conducted after the vaccine is made available."

The National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC) has more information on mandatory vaccinations, and will host a conference in October on vaccination.

PCAST gathers scientists to advise the president in the area of science, technology and innovation. #


7 Comments

Posted by Ralph Quinlan Forde
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 12:56 PM EST

I am amazed there has been no comment. What would be much safer to use is a homeopathic remedy that the French use and spend 7 million annually on. This has been studied three times in flu outbreaks.
Medicine Buddha Bless America. Click my name for blog and more info

Posted by Jane Akre
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 2:44 PM EST

Thanks for commenting. You are right. Now is the time to think about boosting your immunity with clean food, water, and sleep.

And washing those hands....

Thanks!

Anonymous User
Posted by Pete
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 3:51 PM EST

Now you got me scared! Today on CNN they said that "about 40,000 people die from the seasonal flu every year in the U.S." They get this bogus number from the CDC and no one from the media ever questions its accuracy. Check the CDC's own mortality tables and you would see that about 900 flu deaths a year are listed. Almost all these deaths are related to other underlying medical conditions. The whole purpose of this scare tactic (900,000 deaths) is to sell flu vaccines. This year the market for flu shots could break $40 billion. All this money is coming from the taxpayer's channeled through the CDC. That's the real story behind H1N1.

Anonymous User
Posted by kellye
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:43 PM EST

i just checked the cdc website and nowhere on there did it say there were only 900 flu deaths a year. it estimates an average of 36,000 flu related deaths a year. it then went on to explain why flu is not always listed as a cause of death, especially with people with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and circulatory problems.

Anonymous User
Posted by Annie
Wednesday, August 26, 2009 1:33 AM EST

Don't worry Americans...you will most likely have the choice whether or not to get the vaccine. After all this is the USA! If you choose to take the vaccine, well, they gotcha! If you choose not to take the vaccine, well, you will get to go stay in one of the 600 to 800+ fully stocked and operational facilities here in the USA courtesy of the wonderful folks at FEMA. They are going to get you one way or another!

Posted by Shanley Monroe
Thursday, August 27, 2009 4:03 AM EST

Scare tactics (for example, advertising worst case scenarios on the nightly news) are probably the best way to make sure the public voluntarily gets vaccinated without the government infringing on civil liberties by mandating shots.

Posted by Jane Akre
Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:19 AM EST

It's so interesting to see how fear works.

Some of the most groundbreaking work done in revealing how the principles of advertising are used to control a population has been done by the Center for Media and Democracy.

(They provide us all with SourceWatch, so you can look up the roots of any organization, and its funding, for example tort reformers are funded by tobacco, insurance, pharmaceuticals etc, theough the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.)

Their book, "Toxic Sludge is Good For You" is an eye-opening look at how public opinion is shaped. It's a good quick read that I recommend!! Enjoy.

Comments for this article are closed.

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